The Sea Politics is getting complex with an increase in world’s commercial activities. Now the world is not only focusing on the militarily important places but it is also in the search of places that will be productive from the business point of view in future. It is important to note that many countries in Asia are so huge, that their access to the sea via their own land route for international trade is very costly. They are searching for a shortest possible route for themselves. Its example is the mighty China whose western part is several thousand kilometers away from its seaports of the Eastern area.
Its nearest approach for its western part is from Gwadar port Baluchistan (Pakistan), so it has decided to connect its mainland to Gwadar through a transport network which is commonly termed as Pakistan-China Economic Corridor. India strongly retaliated and brought its all resources to counter it. The recent statements against Pakistan by Indian Foreign Minister are in fact representing the intensity of Indian pain because of this economic corridor.
Presently, India is taking all steps to reduce the value of this route. One of the initiatives taken is to build a port in Gulf of Oman at Chabahar at Iranian land. India and Iran signed an agreement to build this port in 2003, but this agreement was not feasible because of international sanction on Iran by Western Countries. As soon as these sanctions are over, Iran’s good weather friend, India is back to Iran and offered it to restart the 2003 agreement of building the said port. It is important to note that India withdrew from Iran-Pakistan-India after Mumbai attack. It was mainly done because of international pressure on India to pressurize it to roll back its nuclear program. Mumbai attack provided a face-saving opportunity to India and it withdrew from this agreement at once.
Why India went back to Iran to build this port? It is important to note this agreement has been done after three subsequent events: a deal finalized between Iran and the West, Chinese President visited Pakistan and signed $46 billion agreement with Pakistan (including Gwadar Port building) and after Afghan President Visit to India. The finalization of deal between Iran and the West provided an opportunity to India to resume its agreement with Iran to promote its trade relations with Afghanistan and Central Asian Republics.
Gwadar port however, is under development by China to easily connect its western area with the world. This port will also be beneficial to Afghanistan and Central Asian Countries. The development of Gwadar by China is considered to be a part of String of Pearls strategy of the country. On the other hand, India wants to counter China and the place it chose in Iran
On the other hand, India wants to counter China and the place it chose in Iran is just 106 miles away from Gwadar. It is a strong attempt to reduce the economic importance of Gwadar. It can be taken as an Indian retaliation to the agreements signed between Pakistan and China.
The establishment of Chabahar can influence value of Gwadar. The present structure of Chahbar is not so well. The development of Gwadar will attract Kabul and Central Asian Republics more. India wants to get back Karzai type regime’s influence in Afghanistan which is only possible if Islamabad’s influence is reduced by disrupting the newly formed cooperative relationship between the two Muslim countries. The present regime of Ashraf Ghani has changed policy and decided to bring a durable peace in Afghanistan which is only possible if the violence of Taliban is eradicated. Here only Pakistan can help Afghanistan, so Ghani regime changed its policy.
Which port Gwadar or Chabahar is suitable for Kabul? It is 1237 kilometers away from Gwadar whereas the distance between Kabul and Chabahar is 1840 kilometers (driving distance). It means Gwadar is more suitable for Kabul because it is more than 600 km nearer to it as compared to Chabahar. Kahandar is situated almost in middle as it is 1338 km away from Gawadar and 1346 km away from Chabahar. If we calculate distance between Herat (the nearest city to Iran) and Gawadar, it is 1637 km away whereas it is 1358 km away from Chabahar.
Distance between Gwadar and all Afghan cities is less compared to Chabahar but law and order situation along Pakistani route is not good. These routes will only be viable, if security is provided along this route. The security condition in Pakistani province Baluchistan is not good and a large part of all routes to Afghanistan is through these routes. It is important to note that Indian is playing a large of game to destabilizing Pakistan in Baluchistan. Several reports have clarified the involvement of RAW in it. According to a statement of Pakistan’s Minister of Defense Khawaja Asif, Baluch insurgents are using Indian Passport.
Why India is supporting Baluch insurgents, its clear reasons is that because it want to save its interests.
Moreover, India has invested heavily to build road to join Afghans cities with Chabahar. It wants failure of Pakistan’s route to Afghanistan. If Pakistan’s route to Afghanistan will continue, it will bring Afghanistan closer to Pakistan which will be not acceptable to India. India wants to play some crucial role in Afghanistan and it wants to use Afghanistan as a proxy to hurt Pakistan. According to an Indian Philosopher Kautaliya, immediate neighbor is enemy and neighbor’s neighbor is a friend.
Today, the pattern of international relations has been changed. Now, India is working on the strategy to have weak neighbors. India wants a complete hegemony in South Asia. All other states, in South Asia, except Pakistan, are so weak that they have no ability to challenge India. It is Pakistan, that is balancing India and if Pakistan breaks, India will capable to play its game more easily. It can succeed only by searching fault lines and one of the hottest points is Baluchistan which India is using very cleverly by sitting in Afghanistan. Its purpose is clear here to hurt Pakistan any time it wishes in future.
A news report is showing that a special cell has been set up in RAW under the supervision of its chief to ruin Pak-China economic corridor. According to this report $35 million has been reserved for this purpose. It clearly indicates that India will do its best to hinder the construction of silk route from Pakistan. Dr Iqtidar Karamat Cheema, a professor of International Relations at University of Gloucestershire, United Kingdom wrote a comprehensive article on RAW intervention in Pakistan and explained that Indian Prime Minister Modi declared to conduct an operation in Pakistan territory.
He further explained that the three arrested militants of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan namely Khurram Ishtiaq, Ghulam Mustafa and Shamim have disclosed that RAW has been funding suicide bomb attacks in Pakistan and that the Indian intelligence agency has channeled 680 million rupees to promote instability in Pakistan. According to a report of Federation of American Scientist, “35000 RAW agents has entered in Pakistan, with 12,000 working in Sindh, 10,000 in Punjab, 8,000 in KPK and 5000 in Baluchistan.” This is clearly showing how RAW is operating inside Pakistan and it is at pain to destroy Pakistani peace.
Pakistan should convince Afghans that Gwadar route is suitable for them. It is an economic route for Afghans with suitable logistic expenses but operationalization of this route is connected to Peace in Baluchistan which is impossible in the presence of several thousand RAW agents. Pakistan must first bring peace than focus on the construction of shortest possible route so that Afghans can be benefitted from this route. Moreover, shortest possible route to Afghanistan will be the shortest possible link Hydrocarbon rich CARs. If Pakistan succeeds to bring peace, its economy will be revolutionized and it will emerge as a powerful country, which cannot be acceptable for Modi government, but Pakistan cannot keep itself undeveloped for happiness of Indian regime.
