Earthquake-Resistant Pakistan Has Become Inevitable

On Saturday, April 25, 2015, a devastating earthquake of 7.8 magnitude, followed by several aftershocks jolted Nepal ruthlessly. Strong tremors were felt in India, China, Bangladesh and Pakistan. Until this article is being written, about 4600 fatalities have been confirmed in Nepal and death toll is expected to increase much more. Thousands of people were injured, roads destroyed, building collapsed, communication system jammed, infrastructure damaged and streets turned into hospitals. “One million children are severely affected by this tragic incidence”, says UNICEF. According to United Nations about 8 million people have been adversely affected.

Such a gigantic destruction and terrifying effects of earthquake dragged me ten years back to another Saturday i.e. October 8, 2005 when a colossal earthquake of magnitude 7.6 struck northern Pakistan leaving more than 87,000 people dead, 138,000 injured and 3.5 million homeless. The earthquake devastated towns and villages in the harsh mountainous terrain of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Northern Punjab and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK). In a matter of minutes, Muzaffarabad and Balakot towns were turned into heaps. Located right on the fault line, none of the building could survive in Balakot. A very substantial portion of Rawalakot and Bagh districts were also affected. It has been estimated that approximately 780,000 buildings, 6298 schools, 796 health facilities and 6440 km roads were destroyed. As a geologist, I was personally involved in execution of geological studies in the earthquake affected areas. In this way, I had a chance to closely observe the exhausting aftermath of a mega catastrophic event in the form of massive destruction and sufferings of our own earthquake-stricken people.

In addition to massive physical damage, earthquakes induce long-lasting human, psychological and socio-economic losses and deprivations. Buildings can be rebuilt and injuries can be healed, however, lives cannot be returned and souls cannot be repaired. What is left are destroyed homes, shattered families, homeless people, collapsed human determinations, charmless lives, terrorized children and terrified faces with stuck minds.

Pakistan is prone to earthquakes. Seismically, Pakistan is one of the most active areas of Asia due to its geographic location with respect to the global tectonic framework. It has high density of active faults and is located at the intersection of three plate boundaries, namely Indian, Eurasian and Arabian plates. The Indian plate moves northward at a rate of about 40 mm/year (1.6 inches/yr) and is colliding with Eurasian plate. This collision is causing uplift that produces the highest mountain ranges in the world including the Himalaya, the Karakoram, the Pamir and the Hindu Kush. Plate boundaries, fault junctions and erratic landscape all are indicating existence of seismic activity in the region. Bumpy estimates show that about four to five earthquakes jolt different parts of Pakistan every year having magnitudes between 5.5 and 8.0. Numerous high-magnitude earthquakes in the past have resulted in loss of life and property in Pakistan. Most significant are 1935 Quetta earthquake of magnitude 7.8 which completely destroyed the Quetta city and killed 30,000 people, 1945 Makran earthquake of magnitude 8.1, 2008 Quetta earthquake of magnitude 6.4, 2011 Southern Pakistan earthquake of magnitude 7.2 and 2013 Awaran earthquake of magnitude 7.7.

There is dire need of augmented awareness among people to understand what is earthquake? How, when and where earthquakes are originated? The earthquake is a sudden release of energy in the form of seismic waves that create vibrations in the earth crust as a result of abrupt movement of two blocks of rock along a crack or fault. It is followed by the aftershocks until the blocks are re-adjusted to a stable position. “More than 200,000 earthquakes are recorded globally and about 50,000 people killed by earthquakes every year”, reports say. Earthquakes over 5.5 are progressively destructive. The loss of property in a single earthquake is sometimes enough to upset a whole national economy.

We need to realize that earthquakes do not kill; buildings do. Most earthquake-related property damage and deaths are caused by the failure and collapse of structures due to ground shaking. Other damaging earthquake affects include landslides, the down-slope movement of soil and rock, avalanche and subsidence. Lack of awareness among general public about how to behave during and after an earthquake is one of the significant causes of extensive damage. “In Pakistan most of the building structures are made up of unreinforced masonry like bricks and concrete blocks which are not resistant to earthquakes”, experts say. The damage quantification in 2005 earthquake had manifested the collapse of most of the government buildings specifically schools had resulted in killing huge number of innocent students. In severely affected areas there was hardly a government building that survived. The main reasons behind such a mammoth destruction were; low quality and non-engineered construction, unbalanced buildings on hill slopes, absence of building design code, improper construction materials, untrained masons and lack of awareness among population particularly children about earthquakes.

The above mentioned facts affirm that the government to seek a holistic approach and a pragmatic edge to tackle earthquake risk in Pakistan. It is not currently possible to make deterministic predictions of when and where earthquake will happen, however, forecasts can be improved as our theoretical understanding of earthquakes grows. Here are some tactics that might be food for thought for improving our societal sustainability against earthquakes:

• PLANNING: Maintain a better planning, construction and mitigation practices before earthquake happen and provide critical and timely information to improve response after an earthquake. Incorporate lessons learnt from the earthquakes occurred in the past.
• R & D: Allocate research and development budgets for science and technology related to earthquakes and disaster management. Enhance capacity building by improving cooperation between government departments.
• PUBLIC AWARENESS: Maintain awareness of local population about earthquake risk and how to act during and after an earthquake. Earthquake related information should be included in school syllabus and children must be taught every aspect of the earthquakes.
• MONITORING: Establish national and regional earthquake monitoring system based on sophisticated tools that provide notification and information that needed by decision makers. An effective network of seismographs must be installed throughout the country to monitor seismicity.
• FORECAST: Develop forecast system (at least long-term) based on integration of data gathered through global seismic monitoring networks, high-density local monitoring in risky areas, geological field work as well as from historic earthquake records. Seismic monitoring and research provide the basis for forecast modeling and hazard assessment. Active involvement of research geologists can play a pivotal role in making such initiatives successful.
• LEGISLATION: Approve legislation covering natural hazards and establish concrete goals for mitigation by strategically and intensively prompting steps. National policies must be proactive and widely understood. Local level administrations must adapt plans and strategies to meet dynamics of disaster.
• MICROZONATION: Carry out country level seismic microzonation to minimize disaster damage. Based on the earthquake risk and ground conditions, areas can be divided into different zones marked with hazard categories. For instance, RED where no construction is allowed and can be used only for play grounds and parks; YELLOW where single story buildings can be built whereas multi-story buildings are not allowed. BLUE where multi-story buildings can be built with engineering solutions and building codes; and GREEN where construction is not restricted based on anticipated hazard.
• BUILDING CODE: Develop national building code. Adopting and enforcing building code provisions reduce earthquake damage risk. Buildings must be constructed according to the design codes to withstand earthquake affects i.e. earthquake-resistant structures.
• RISK ASSESSMENT: Inspect, evaluate and document risk associated with existing buildings and infrastructure in earthquake prone areas. Ensure that the risk assessment has been incorporated in governmental policies.
• EMERGENCY RESPONSE: Prioritize emergency preparedness by ensuring that emergency plan and response procedures are in place. Rescue teams must be trained and efficient. Rescue attempts must be swift and massive in order to save lives and money.
• INSURANCE: Setting earthquake insurance program. Generally, earthquake losses are dramatic and companies are reluctant to pay. However, government could share a portion of the loss if it is quantified as intensely huge.

Records show that mega-events occur sporadically; however, their impact is severe and irreparable. To cope with the earthquakes we will have to teach each other, our people and our children. Awareness about how to behave during and after an earthquake is crucial for such a country. Policy intervention at higher levels is essentially required to maintain a plausible level of sustaining earthquakes. How to cope with earthquakes as a nation needs to be tackled scientifically and systematically. Insight into this issue is essential from policy perspective. Pakistan needs an integrated disaster management approach. Geological Survey of Pakistan (GSP), disaster management department and local administrations could play a cutting edge role in evolving earthquake-resistant Pakistan.