“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results” – Albert Einstein
Stalemate is not a new phenomenon between India and Pakistan neither is the ceasefire violations along the LOC. Talks have been stalled before, visits have been canceled earlier, violent official rhetorics have been exchanged on regular basis, and the world generally has raised concerns over the enraged sentiments of nuclear-tipped neighbors in South Asia.
This whole pattern, in more or less the same order and intensity, has been witnessed many times before. While one cannot deny the importance of measures like CBMs, attention to cross-border terrorism, enhanced trade, and people to people contacts, to create a climate for constructive development, but, ignoring the centrality of Kashmir issue will always hamper the prospects of stability. Attempts at creating durable peace have always been unproductive and will continue to be so if the Kashmir issue is not addressed. It is as simple and as obvious as that.
In the present scenario when the most awaited NSA level talks have been called off and the situation at the border is more effervescent than ever, India and Pakistan both need to reevaluate their options. Harping on the same blame game against each other will do no good to any side.
No doubt Kashmir is not an easy problem to tackle but India’s insistence on leaving it out of the talks in the hope for avoiding deadlock over other bilateral issues is reflective of its diplomatic immaturity and stubbornness at the highest level. India needs to understand that “negotiations” cannot be held on terms of just one party and definitely cannot begin with “pre-conditions”.
Both India and Pakistan have enormous stakes in the unresolved issue of Kashmir. The acts of violence, hostilities, terrorism, which Ufa agreement hoped to address, have their roots in this very issue. One then fails to understand how India expects to address the problem of terrorism without tending the core issue of Kashmir. How can India be so naïve not to realize that Kashmiris are an inalienable part of Kashmir dispute and that Indian opposition of not including them in bilateral talk only shows the lack of proper judgment and sincerity on India’s part.
Why does India feel the need to pick and chose which “type” of terrorism is to be discussed and which is off the agenda? India must let go of its arrogance and accept this reality. In order to dispel the charged up emotions on both sides, Kashmir needs to be discussed and addressed with genuine efforts as this is the only way to achieve peace and prosperity in the South Asian region.
The US National Security Advisor’s emergency visit to Pakistan is of utmost importance in this regard. On one hand it shows how closely the US is observing the development on Ufa agreement, and on the other hand it also reflects upon US acknowledging strategic importance of Pakistan. The visit gives out the message loud and clear, that any effort to bring about peace in the region will require an equal amount of participation from both the states.
However, it raises some serious questions too. Does Pakistan need to be “told” if the talks should be resumed or not? Does the US think that Pakistan is not aware of what is important for its National Security? Will the US suggest Pakistan to resume the talks as per India’s terms and conditions? There is a hope that the US National Security Advisor Susan Rice doesn’t come with an authoritative tone with regards to the mandated bilateral and regional issues.
The US also needs to show serious and honest efforts if it is genuinely committed to peace and stability in South Asian region. It knows that the security dynamics between India and Pakistan will never favour a bilateral solution to their problems, and that the third player will always be required who would bring the two sides on the negotiation table while itself staying impartial. Only paying visits and issuing statements that the two countries should hold talks and later expressing disappointments when they are canceled, is useless. Standing on the sidelines as a spectator and hoping to see the positive outcomes is rather foolhardy on US’ part.
US should also realize that India cannot just have these talks resumed on its terms but will have to take Pakistan’s concerns into considerations too. Any attempt by the US to convince Pakistan for the resumption of talks while ignoring this crucial aspect will only reveal its hypocrisy.
Pakistan should also make the most of the visit by Susan Rice. It should clearly state the importance of Kashmir issue for Pakistan and for the region and should stick to it. Also the copy of the dossier that was prepared to be presented at NSA level talks between India and Pakistan showing India’s interference should now be presented to Susan Rice. Not just that but it should also made public with concrete facts and figures so that right picture is portrayed globally. US is required to play the role of an active, responsible, and impartial mediator.
All core issues important to each side should be laid out openly on the tables otherwise talks will continue to be derailed, peace process will continue to be hampered, and bloodshed and violence will continue to further worsen the political stability in the South Asian region. Pakistan has the political will and eagerness, and now same is required from India and the US. This is what has always been missing.
One simply cannot expect different results by employing the same “formula” every time.