Donald Trump’s Doctrine after becoming the 45th President of the United States regarding South Asia is not really vague to be speculated. The Trump Administration’s economic and national security teams will have to deal the region with both long-term geo-strategic policies and near-term tactical decisions at a time when the South Asian region is encompassed with the muddled situations and problems. Pakistan, being the frontline state against terrorism is still suffering due to the “DO MORE” rhetoric as the Global War on Terror is in the culmination phase now.
Afghanistan seems to have drowned more deeper into instability while the India’s development and the economic growth has met a temporary setback. China has intensified its involvement in the form of developmental projects and infrastructural reforms in Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and specifically Pakistan in the shape of multi-faceted billion dollars project of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Although Trump stated less about Afghanistan crisis during his campaign, it is obvious that Afghanistan will be on priority list in South Asia especially due to the presence of US troops which were to be depleted up to 5,500 troops by the end of year 2016. However, 8,400 troops have been retained to guide and help the Afghan Forces to fight against Taliban who are rearing their heads up once again by making the new territorial gains.
Just like the previous US Administrations, the Trump team requires a post-haste review of its policies and will have to devise a strategy that serves the US national interest by eradicating the Taliban insurgency and initiating the developmental projects in the war-torn country.
The new US Administration is likely to upskill, guide and train the Afghans in the counter-terrorism expeditions. Trump has vowed to completely eliminate the radical Islamic terrorism, primarily the Islam State as his first stratagem for achieving the national security goals. The fragile government of Kabul needs the diplomatic assistance from the Trumps Administration. The restoration of the Taliban’s terrorist attacks and the troubled armistice between the Afghan National Unity Government’s and the Taliban is getting worse and this chaotic situation necessitates the Trump’s revised policy towards Afghanistan, though the willingness for the political reconciliation may seem indefinite yet.
The next challenge that the Trump team will encounter will be Pakistan. It is evident throughout the history that US foreign policy has always been inclined towards India in South Asia. Likewise, in the Donald Trump’s era the policies will continue in the same manner without any sharp divergence in the favor of Pakistan. Resultantly, Pakistan must engage itself in soft power diplomacy by collaborating more with China in the mega-project of CPEC and it should turn its eye towards East Russia for the better future prospects.
This would definitely shape the foreign policy of Pakistan in a more multidimensional and diverging ways. It is humbly anticipated that the recent US Administration would shun its policy of Congagement (a policy of containment and engagement) vis-à-vis Pakistan. Which, however might give a sigh of relief to all the intelligentsia and the policy makers of the respective countries. This conducive environment will lead to the relations based on mutual trust striving for mutual interests, giving space to the engagement policy only.
The bilateral relations between India and Pakistan are currently at lowest ebb following the terrorist attacks in Uri and Pathankot for which Pakistan was thoughtlessly accused without any evidence. This situation becomes more alarming when both the states are nuclear power. India’s efforts to declare Pakistan as the state sponsor of terrorism lead the US policy maker to rethink the Pakistan’s status as it always played a crucial role against the GWOT.
Although Pakistan’s efforts have been acknowledged for carrying out Operation Zarb e Azab, still the Trump Administration can raise its apprehensions for the compartmentalization of the terrorist groups. In order to avoid this worrisome obligation, Pakistan must discontinue its dubious policies towards dealing with the terrorist organizations otherwise it can jeopardize the Pakistan’s stance in the Republican-dominated US Congress.
However, it is envisaged that the exigency of the contemporary circumstances is that US foreign policy must have a complete and structural refurbishment vis-à-vis South Asia. If Pakistan is ignored, it would be counterproductive to the US interests in the region. Pakistan is the state that cannot be marginalized for a longer period of time. Stronger ties with Pakistan will result in peace and an end to the insurgency in Afghanistan that is ultimately in the interest of the whole world specially US.